Poboljšanje uspješnosti prognoze oborine nad Indijom primjenom metode višemodelskog ansambla

In this paper a Multi-Model Ensemble (MM E) technique is experimented for improving day to day rainfall forecast over India in short to medium range time scale during summer monsoon of 2010. Four operational global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models namely, ECMWF, JMA, NCEP GFS and UKMO available on real time basis at India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi are used simultaneously with appropriate weights to obtain the MME Technique. In this technique, weights for each NWP model at each grid point is assigned on the basis of the correlation coefficient (CC) between model forecasts and observed daily rainfall time series of south west monsoon (JJAS) season. Apart from MM E, a simple ensemble mean (ENSM ) forecast are also generated and experimented. The rainfall prediction skill of the weighted MM E is examined against ENSM and member models. The inter-comparison reveals that the weighted MM E is able to provide more accurate forecast of rainfall over Indian monsoon region by taking the strength of each constituent member model. It has been further found that the rainfall prediction skill of MM E is higher as compared to ENSM and member models in the short range time scale. The rainfall prediction skill of weighted MM E technique improved significantly over India.U ovom radu primijenjena je metoda višemodelskog ansambla (MME) s ciljem poboljšanja kratkoročnih do srednjoročnih dnevnih prognoza količine oborine nad Indijom tijekom ljetnog monsuna 2010. godine. pri tome su istovremeno te s odgovarajućim težinama korištena četiri operativna globalna modela za numeričku prognozu vremena (NWP): ECMWF, JMA, NCEP, GFS i UKMO, a koji su na raspolaganju u realnom vremenu pri Indijskom meteorološkom odsjeku (IMD) u New Delhiju. Težine za svaki NWP model u svakoj točki mreže pridijeljene su na temelju koeficijenta korelacije (CC) između modelskih prognoza i mjerenog niza dnevne količine oborine za sezonu jugozapadnog monsuna (od lipnja do rujna). Pored MME, generirane su i ispitane jednostavne prognoze dobivene srednjakom ansambla (ENSM). Uspješnost prognoze količine oborine dobivene MME metodom procijenjena je usporedbom rezultata dobivenih tom metodom i onih na temelju ENSM te sa svakim pojedinačnim modelom. Međusobna usporedba pokazuje da metoda MME točnije prognozira količinu oborine u području indijskog monsuna ponderiranjem doprinosa svakog pojedinog modela u ansamblu. Nadalje, utvrđena je veća uspješnost kratkoročnih prognoza količine oborine pomoću metode mmE u odnosu na rezultate metode ENSM te u odnosu na prognoze pojedinačnih modela ansambla. Primjena ponderirane metode MME značajno poboljšava uspješnost prognoze količine oborine nad Indijom

Some Fixed point Theorems in Generalization Metric space

In this paper we establish some fixed point results for mapping satisfying sufficient contractive conditions on a complete G-metric space. Key words and phrases: Metric space, generalized metric space

Fixed Point Theorems for Four Mappings in Fuzzy Metric Space using Implicit Relation

Abstract The present paper deals with proving some common fixed point results in a fuzzy metric space using Implicit Relation. Index Terms: Fixed point, fuzzy metric space, occasionally weakly compatible mappings, t-norm, Implicit Relation

FIXED POINT THEOREMS FOR A GENERALIZED ALMOST CONTRACTIVE MAPPINGS IN ORDERED METRIC SPACES FOR INTEGRAL TYPE

In this paper, the existence theorems of fixed points and common fixed points for two weakly increasing mappings satisfying a new condition in ordered  metric spaces are proved. Our results extend, generalize and unify most of the fundamental metrical fixed point thaorems in the literature in Integral type mappings. AMS: 47H10, 54H25. Keywords: common fixed point, almost contraction, ordered metric spaces

Common Fixed Point of Weakly Compatible Maps on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Metric Spaces

In this paper, we introduce the concept of - chainable intuitionistic fuzzy metric space askin to the notion of - chainable fuzzy metric space and prove a common fixed point theorem for weakly compatible mappings in this newly defined space.   2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 47H10, 54H25

Fixed point theorems through rational expression in Altering distance functions

In this paper we proves a generalised results of J.R. Morales , E.M.Rojas , B.K.Dasand,  S.Gupta .Also the results given by B.Samet and H.Yazid using altering distance functions and property P for the contraction mappings. Keywords:Fixed point, Altering distance functions, Complete metric space. Mathematical Subject Classification: 45H10, 54H25

Common Fixed Point of Occasionally Weakly Compatible Maps on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Metric Spaces For Integral Type Inequality

In this paper, We obtain common fixed point theorems in intuitionistic fuzzy metric spaces using Occasionally weakly compatible maps for integral type inequality. Our results are the intuitionistic fuzzy version of some fixed point theorems for weakly compatible mappings on different metric spaces. Key words and phrases: Intuitionistic fuzzy metric space, Occasionally weakly Compatible mappings, Common fixed point

A theory-based investigation of patient and healthcare professional behaviours linked to optimal removal of short-term urinary catheters

Ph. D. ThesisCatheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs) are among the most prevalent healthcare-acquired infections. Prolonged catheter duration increases CAUTI risk by 5% per day. The average duration of postoperative short-term urinary catheterisation in the UK remains higher than recommended standards. Implementation of early catheter removal guidance is likely influenced by patient and healthcare professional (HCP) factors. This research investigates behavioural determinants (barriers and enablers) of prolonged catheter duration using the theoretical domains framework (TDF). Study 1 (literature review) highlighted that existing interventions and current guidance on catheter removal focus on either limiting the use of urinary catheters or on early catheter removal. A combination of strategies appears more effective than a singular strategy, but sustained improvement over time remains unclear. Current UK guidelines on the timing of catheter removal were non-specific. Two TDF-based interview studies explored barriers and enablers to prolonged catheter duration with hospital-based HCPs (doctors, nurses and ancillary staff) (Study 2) and with hospitalised/catheterised patients (Study 3). For HCPs, several key barriers to catheter removal practice were identified, for example, low motivation to remove catheters promptly due to competing demands; poor knowledge of removal guidance and evidence-based practice. Key enablers for HCPs included being highly skilled at removing catheters; the use of handover notes, reminders and daily task lists; and having senior and specialised colleagues as role models. Patient barriers to engaging with HCPs were, for example, perceived inability to manage without a catheter/dependence on the catheter, environmental and resource factors such as the lack of accessible toilets and staff assistance with toileting, staff attitudes, and ward culture. Patient enablers were: motivation to engage to speed-up hospital discharge and social support from the family. A range of modifiable barriers linked to HCP and patient-related behaviours were identified which may help explain the prolonged duration of short-term urinary catheters. A behaviour change intervention targeting these barriers whilst strengthening the enablers may reduce catheter duration and subsequently CAUTIs.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Assessment of outcome of trial of labour after caesarean in a tertiary hospital based setting: prospective observational study

Background: Aim of this study was to determine the success rate of vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) in Indian women, identify the factors that predict its success, and assess the maternal and neonatal outcomes following a trial of labour after caesarean (TOLAC). Methods: A prospective observational study involving women with one  previous lower segment caesarean section (LSCS) who were admitted for TOLAC between January 2019 and June 2020 at Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India. There were 124 women with previous LSCS who opted for TOLAC. Results: During the study period, 124 women with previous LSCS who opted for TOLAC were included, of whom 68 (54.8%) had successful VBAC and 56 (45.2%) had failed TOLAC. The induction of labour (IOL) rate in the study was 69.4%, and 30.6% of women had spontaneous onset of labor. VBAC rates were significantly higher in women who went into labour spontaneously (84.2% vs. 15.8%). Maternal complication rates were comparable, whereas the neonatal complication rate was significantly higher in neonates born by CS (51.7% vs. 30.8%), with a greater incidence of low birthweight (LBW) and transient tachypnea in the newborn (TTNB). Conclusions: TOLAC can be considered a safe option for women with a previous caesarean when combined with vigilant and stringent labour monitoring, despite the use of IOL agents

TOPICAL GEL INCORPORATED WITH NON-IONIC SURFACTANT BASED SOLID LIPID MICROSPHERES OF KETOPROFEN: PHYSICOCHEMICAL ANALYSIS AND ANTI-INFLAMMATORY EVALUATION

Objective: The present study was aimed at the fabrication and characterization of solid lipid based microspheres (SLM) of Ketoprofen (KPF) and comparing its anti-inflammatory potential with the marketed formulation.Methods: Stearic acid as a lipid and tween 20, 80, span 20 and 80 as surfactants (at various concentrations) were utilized for formulation of topical delivery. Microparticles were successfully fabricated (0.71-3.12 µm) by hot melt microencapsulation technique and were characterised by photomicroscope, FTIR, scanning electron surface morphology, particle size analysis, zeta potential, fluorescent microscopy and In-vitro drug release studies followed by In-vitro and In-vivo anti-inflammatory studies.Results: Results revealed that tween 80 resulted in exceptional KPF entrapment efficiency of 82.6% with spherical rough surface morphology. In-vitro drug release showed the initial burst release of 47% upto 2h followed by sustained release of 70% for 12h. By employing drug release kinetic modelling, formulations were found to obey Higuchi model and Korsmeyer-Peppas model. Further the In-vitro permeation study of optimized gel formulation represented better drug uptake through rat skin in comparison to marketed product. Finally, SLMs were found to possess superior In-vitro and In-vivo anti-inflammatory potentials when compared to marketed formulation.Conclusion: SLMs proved to be promising drug carrier system for KPF topical delivery as they possessed the desirable particle size with high ability for drug entrapment with sustained anti-inflammatory effect.Â